London, 15 July 2009

Newly released 3G+ and Long Term Evolution (LTE) forecasts by technology and media specialist Coda Research Consultancy show that portable laptop and netbook users accessing the internet via mobile broadband will number 418m worldwide by 2017, will produce US$48bn in revenues, and will generate and consume an immense 1.8 exabytes of traffic per month - a forty fold increase over 2009.

Coda Research’s report into mobile broadband via netbooks and laptops shows that the most significant growth will occur in the Asia-Pacific region, where users will amount to 162m by 2017. Europe will account for 94m users, and together, Asia Pacific and Europe will account for 61% of all users. The picture for LTE is even more dramatic, with nearly three quarters of worldwide LTE users coming from these two regions by 2017.

Europe will have the lowest mobile broadband user growth of all the regions surveyed. But despite this, it will still grow 135% over 2009, and Europe will have one third of all LTE users by 2017. North America will grow to 58m users overall by 2017, a 263% increase over 2009. Users from Middle East and Africa will grow to reach 48m.

LTE users accessing mobile broadband via portables will hit 38m in 2013 after a ramp up in LTE production in 2012, and will rise to 209m by 2017, a 1100% increase over 2012. Three quarters of users in Europe and nearly two thirds of users in North America will employ LTE in 2017. This contrasts with just over half of users in Asia Pacific, and 12% in Central and South America. According to Steve Smith, founder of Coda Research, “LTE take up will be greatly skewed toward European and North American markets in the short to medium term, where ARPU will be highest. However, we will also see significant take up in China, and we may also see countries like India bypass 3G altogether, and move straight to LTE.”

More generally, user growth will not correspond with revenue growth, particularly in less wealthy regions of Asia-Pacific, thus significantly impacting mobile broadband ARPU. For example, revenues from Asia Pacific will grow at only 50% of the rate of users, which contrasts with 63% for Europe. The silver lining however, is that LTE ARPU will be 17% higher than for mobile broadband in general.

LTE revenues will be greatest in Europe, where they will rise by a CAGR of 47% from  2012 to 2017, and will form 83% of all mobile broadband revenues in that region. LTE revenues from North America will grow significantly more, at a CAGR of 59% between 2012 and 2017, and LTE will form 72% of its mobile broadband revenues. In contrast, LTE revenues will form only 13% of all mobile broadband revenues in Middle East and Africa.

LTE usage via portables will lead to more traffic per user than for mobile broadband in general. This will further increase pressure upon network capacity, and will hit 1.1 exabytes per month in 2017. Asia Pacific alone will take up 45% of this, whilst Europe will take up a third, and North America 17%.

Video will dominate traffic to and from portables, and will account for over half (53%) of traffic by 2017. The bad news for rights’ holders is that one fifth of all traffic will be P2P. Nearly half of video traffic (47%) and nearly two thirds of P2P traffic will be consumed in Asia Pacific. This reflects the dominant position this region will play in mobile broadband usage and how mobile broadband will continue to be the sole vehicle for many people to gain broadband connectivity in developing countries such as India and China.

In summing up the report’s forecasts, Steve Smith said, “Clearly, tremendous opportunities for both operators and device and component vendors exist, but the risks are significant. With enormous growth in traffic and considerable decline in ARPU, operators will need to be ruthlessly efficient. Asia Pacific is going to be the hotbed for growth, but it is a complex picture of emerging markets, developed markets and even markets that will leapfrog 3G altogether. LTE is going to be an important cushion for operators, but our research shows they will need to take into account the very different factors impacting 3G+ growth across regions and decide carefully how, when and where to market LTE.”

The report Mobile Broadband and Portable Computers: Revenue, User and Traffic Forecasts 2009-2017 forms part of Coda Research Consultancy’s 2009 ‘Mobilities’ project. This report presents 37 pages of revenue, user and traffic forecasts and commentary up to and including 2017, split by five key regions (Europe, Asia Pacific, North America, Latin America, and Middle East and Africa). The report includes separate forecasts for LTE (Long Term Evolution).

The report is essential reading for device and component vendors, mobile network operators, consultants, financial analysts and application, content and service providers.

Key Questions answered by this report:
•   How much service revenue and ARPU will users of mobile broadband via portables generate by region each year up to 2017?
•   What proportions of these revenues and ARPU will be derived from LTE?
•   What will the take up of mobile broadband across each region each year be, and how much and what types of traffic will they generate?
•   What proportions of revenue, users and traffic will be generated by LTE each year up to 2017?
•   Which will be the prime regions for 3G and LTE deployments?
•   What are the trends, drivers and constraints shaping the development of mobile broadband, including LTE, markets across all regions?