Risk analysis assists electronics specialist with business-critical decisions

Thales UK has adopted @RISK software from Palisade Corporation (www.palisade.com), to enable it to assess commercial feasibility of potential new business wins. @RISK's in-depth risk analysis ensures the leading provider of mission-critical electronic information systems for aerospace, defence and security markets around the world, is fully informed when making business-critical decisions.

Thales operates in a highly competitive environment, with technologically advanced countries presenting tough opposition when it tenders for contracts. It must continually develop highly sophisticated equipment that is robust and failsafe to meet the stringent demands of its customers. Bringing products of this calibre to market is costly in terms of time and resource, so for every competitive new business opportunity, Thales must be confident that it has a reasonable chance of success.

Thales uses @RISK software from Palisade to assist it in making strategic decisions of whether or not to tender for new business. Using Monte Carlo analysis to show all potential scenarios and the likelihood that each will occur, @RISK enables Thales to calculate the competitiveness of complex markets, measure probabilities for project costs, quantify rate of return, and even account for the effects of cumulative business, thereby providing decision-makers with the most complete picture possible.  From this risk analysis, Thales can make an informed decision on the commercial viability of the potential new business offered.

Adam Ogilvie-Smith, Senior Consultant with Thales UK’s management consultancy business, comments: “Our commercial success is determined by our ability to quantify both our internal operations, as well our position in the wider environment in which we operate - which is both dynamic and sensitive. It is essential therefore that we use a versatile and robust modelling tool that can handle the complexity of our queries. @RISK combines its powerful risk analysis capability with the added benefit of being easy and intuitive to use, and applicable for almost any task.  As a result it is a key strategic tool for Thales UK, assisting us in our process of reaching informed business-critical decisions.”

Additionally, Thales' complex calculations must consider that, while winning a contract is favourable, the long-term commercial cost of that business can be prohibitive, thereby negating the rationale for pitching for the contract in the first place. For instance, once developed, sophisticated electronic systems for aircraft require continual upgrading – the cost of which may outweigh the profit projections of the initial deal. @RISK also assists Thales to weigh up the overall cost of bringing the completed project to market against the probability of winning the business so that it can be sure it will break even.